Although the Baccarat game is simple to understand, utilizing the proper bankroll tips and betting strategy will maximize your time at the table to earn consistent wins. Here is a comprehensive list of the best bankroll tips for Baccarat. The truth about patterns. Many Baccarat tables keep track of the outcome of each round. This Baccarat Trend Spotting and Betting System book by Bestselling Baccarat professional, Stephen R. Tabone highlights the main trends any Baccarat bettor should be aware of. Once you’re able to identify the main trends you can begin to learn how to predict what betting method to use on certain shoe trends that this book teaches.

1. Reading Baccarat Patterns Chart
2. Reading Baccarat Patterns Book
3. Reading Baccarat Patterns
4. Reading Baccarat Patterns Pictures
5. How To Read Baccarat
6. Reading Baccarat Patterns Free

Everyone plays any given casino game in the hope of winning money. You might say it is a bit of fun and that is certainly the right approach but it is undeniable that things are a lot more fun when you are winning.

“Beating the house” is what we all dream of and over the course of history countless hours have been dedicated to dreaming up systems and methods that might enable this notion to become a reality.

There are many such systems touted as being able to achieve a positive result for the player. Very few work. Card counting in blackjack is one such strategy and spotting wheel or croupier bias at roulette is another. Almost all the others are either illegal (for example marking cards) or, quite simply, they do not work.

Reading Baccarat Patterns Chart

They say you never see a bookmaker riding a bike and if that is true then it is probably fair to say you never see a casino-owner flying economy either. The simple reason is that casino games are purposefully designed to give the casino the edge. A profit margin for the house is factored in and that means that on average, most of the time, they win and the player loses.

Luck can change that in the short-term. A system that your friend read about on the internet, or worse still paid good money for, cannot. Casinos continue to be opened and are generally glitzy, fabulous and cost at least eight figures to build. That should tell you something.

Does Pattern Recognition At Baccarat Work?

Did you read the introduction above? Does pattern recognition work? No. And No again. Just like pattern recognition in other random events such as a coin toss or roulette, it categorically does not work. Seriously, do not invest any of your time or money into investigating this, reading your friend’s book, paying for any great secret or anything else because that will be time and/or money wasted.

If you walk into a bricks and mortar casino you may well see people making a note of the results in baccarat (you will see people recording blackjack results too) but it’s a waste of time. Online and in some more modern establishments this is done electronically for you and actually, the fact that the casino are happy to do that should give you a really big clue as to the efficacy of any related system.

When it comes to baccarat, people will be keeping a tally of how many hands are won by the player and the banker, and how many are tied. This is the starting point for the concept of pattern recognition. Maths tells us that over an infinite number of hands the following percentage of hands will be won as such:

• Player wins 44.6% of all hands
• Banker wins 45.9%
• Ties occur 9.5% of the time

Pattern recognition and related strategies use these figures and recent results to try to obtain an advantage over the house. Pattern recognition usually refers to a strategy of backing an outcome which is “overdue”. However, in another indication that perhaps this isn’t the best so-called system, some use former results to bet the other way, believing not that one result is overdue but that the other is enjoying a streak and is more likely to come up.

Pattern Recognition: Player Or Bank Is Overdue A Win

The primary way some players try to use past results is based on erroneous maths and false intuition. There is actually a complex and seemingly plausible mathematical basis for this view that for a long time appeared difficult to refuse.

Let us assume that we are backing the banker (this is the best bet in baccarat and, if you are playing, it is the only wager you should ever make). We know that 45.9% of the time the banker will win. If a player records 100 hands and sees that the banker has only won 28 times, it is quite easy to see how some might be fooled into thinking they are “due” a win. The win rate stands at just 28% against an expected ratio of more like 46%.

The complex mathematical basis that goes beyond a feeling that a win for the bank is overdue is based on the ideas that if the bank wins 45.9% of the time, it has to be more likely to win in order to reach that number. If the win rate is currently down at 28%, the only way it can achieve the 45.9% we know it will, is by the banker winning more frequently in the future.

Both a player’s gut instinct and a seemingly more scientific approach to the issue are really false expressions of the same point. In a random event, such as a hand of baccarat (or a spin of the roulette wheel or toss of a coin), what has happened previously does not impact what will happen in the future.

The belief that it does is known as the gambler’s fallacy, or the Monte Carlo Fallacy (following a reported incident in 1913 where black hit 26 times in a row at roulette, a one in 67m occurrence). Pattern recognition in this sense in baccarat does not work because no matter how many times the player has won, the odds of the game remain the same.

Moreover, what you perceive to be a statistically important anomaly in the variance, for example the banker only winning 28% of observed hands, is a mere blip. You have not observed the trillions of hands that have been played previously nor the infinite number of hands to come. Your “pattern” is just a tiny sliver of random events that has no bearing on the future.

Is a Pattern a Streak?

An alternative way in which “patterns” are used is to identify what players term “streaks”. Many baccarat players view the lack of one outcome as a sign that the alternative bet is “hot” and on a streak.

So in our example where the banker has won 28% of the time, we might assume the tie has hit a statistically typical nine times and the player has won a whopping 63% of the games. That strike rate is smashing the 44 or 45 wins that would typically be expected and therefore a player using the “theory” (and we use that term very generously) of backing streaks would bet heavily on the player.

Some ‘strategies’ that advocate backing on a streak might suggest you wait for a run of three in a row, or five in a row, or perhaps even more. If this was an event where past outcomes had any bearing at all on future ones, issues would still remain. Who decides how many results constitutes a streak? How do we know when the streak has ended or whether one reversal is just a blip? It’s all just guess work.

However, these questions are irrelevant when it comes to baccarat because, as we have stated, each hand is essentially independent of the last. The reason we add the minor caveat of saying “essentially” is that in baccarat, like in blackjack, the cards being dealt come from a finite deck (usually eight decks) and so each one drawn does alter future probabilities.

However, in baccarat these make virtually no difference to the outcome of the game. A player counting cards in blackjack can gain enough of an edge to beat the house’s advantage. In baccarat they cannot even get close. Which returns us to the key issue, the “patterns” and results of previous hands make no significant difference to the probabilities involved with future ones.

Conclusion: Pattern Recognition Is A Nonsense

To conclude we can quite simply say that pattern recognition is a total waste of time when it comes to baccarat.

Keeping a note of the results of past hands gives you absolutely no advantage when it comes to betting on future hands. Each hand is an independent event and as such it matters not whether there have been 10 ties in a row, 17 banker wins in a row or only one banker win in the last hour.

The concept of streaks or the alternative notion that a certain result is overdue are both 100% wrong.

Baccarat is an interesting and popular card game that is probably one of only a few you are likely to come across in a casino that allows you to bet against yourself to win. Here is a simple guide on how to play Baccarat, including the rules and probabilities involved and the strategy you should bear in mind when you are playing.

Baccarat rules

The objective of Baccarat is to successfully bet on whether the next round will be won by yourself, the banker or a tie.

A round is won if the value of the player or banker’s initial hand is worth eight or nine (referred to as a natural, with nine beating eight) or tied if both get a natural of the same value.

If neither achieve this, the round is won by whoever’s hand has the highest value up to nine after they have been dealt a third card, if they are allowed to receive one. If the two hands have the same value after this stage, the round is tied.

In most casinos, a successful bet on the player has a payout of 2:1, a successful bet on the banker has a payout of 2:1 minus 5% the value of the original bet (195% of the original bet), and a successful tie bet has a payout of 8:1. Generally, if a round is tied, any bets on the player and banker are carried through to the next round.

Baccarat often uses eight decks and can have a single player up to as many as fourteen (not including the banker).

Reading Baccarat Patterns Book

Baccarat card values

Face cards (Kings, Queens and Jacks) and 10 are worth zero, Aces are worth one and cards from two to nine are worth their pip value (the value stated on the card).

The maximum Baccarat value a hand can have is nine, meaning hands with a value up to nine count as such. For hands that have a value of 10 or more, only the last digit of their value is used (for instance, a hand comprised of a six and seven would not be worth 13, but three).

Baccarat gameplay

There are multiple variants of Baccarat, although by far the most popular and used at casinos is Punto banco, which is outlined below. Common alternatives include Chemin de fer (sometimes referred to as chemmy), Baccarat banque (also known as à deux tableaux) and Macao, which are covered in our guide to Baccarat variants.

How to play Punto banco

In punto banco, the decks are shuffled in a shoe with a cut card placed in front of the seventh from last card. The banker burns the first card face up and depending on its value (with Aces worth one and face cards worth 10), then precede to burn that many cards face down. Bets are placed at the start of the round before the cards have been dealt. At this stage a player may also place a Baccarat side bet, which is covered in its own article.

The player (‘punto’) and banker (‘banco’) are then dealt two cards, alternating between the player and banker.

If either the player or banker has a natural worth eight or nine and the other does not, or one has a hand worth nine and the other’s hand is worth eight, the person with the higher valued hand has won the round. If both have a natural of the same value, the round is tied.

Reading Baccarat Patterns

If neither has a hand worth eight or nine, it is then determined whether the player can receive a third card. If the player’s initial hand is worth zero to five, they can do so, and if it is worth six or seven, they must stand.

If the player stands, the banker must then determine if they can receive a third card according to the same rules. If the player has received a third card, whether or not the banker can receive a third card is decided by the following:

• If the banker’s hand is worth two or less, they draw a third card.
• If the banker’s hand is worth three, they draw a third card unless the player's third card was an eight.
• If the banker’s hand is worth four, they draw a third card if the player's third card was between two and seven.
• If the banker’s hand is worth five, they draw a third card if the player's third card was between four and seven.
• If the banker’s hand is worth six, they draw a third card if the player's third card was a six or seven.
• If the banker’s hand is worth seven, they stand.

This is summarised by the table below:

When can the banker draw a third card in Baccarat?

After all of this has been determined and any cards have been dealt, the winner is the person who has the hand with the higher value up to nine. If the player and banker have hands with the same value, the round is tied.

Baccarat round example

Here are is an example of a Baccarat round based on a game featuring three players and the banker:

• At the start of the round, Player 1 bets €100 on themselves to win and Players 2 and 3 bet €100 on the banker to win. The banker then deals everyone their cards – the banker gets two sevens (14), giving them an initial hand value of four.
• Player 1 is dealt a five and four, for an initial hand value of nine. They have therefore beat the banker via natural and win their bet on a 2:1 payout, receiving €200.
• Player 2 is dealt a 10 and a Jack, for an initial value of zero. They are thus dealt a third card which is an eight, meaning their hand finishes with a value of eight. The banker is not allowed to deal a third card against them, meaning they beat the banker by eight to four but lose their bet, as they bet on the banker to win.
• Player 3 is dealt a nine and a seven (16) for an initial value of six, meaning they are required to stand. The banker is allowed to deal a third card against them, which is a five, giving them a final hand value of nine. This means that Player 3 has lost the round but won their bet, receiving a 2:1 payout minus 5% the value of their original bet, equating to €195.

Baccarat odds and probabilities

Whereas probability has a less pivotal role in Baccarat than other card games such as Blackjack, it is still useful to be aware of the probabilities and odds involved. To start, the probability of getting a card of any value from Ace through to King is approximately 7.69%. As there are four cards worth zero (10, Jack, Queen and King), the probability of getting a card worth zero is 30.76%.

Based on this, the chance of getting a natural eight or nine from your opening two cards and winning is 16.25%. The probability of the player and banker getting a natural of the same value is 1.79% and the odds of a player getting eight and banker getting nine is 0.90%. Not getting an eight or nine and losing to the banker is a 15.35% chance and neither the banker nor player getting an eight or nine is the most likely outcome at approximately 65.72%.

Furthermore, the law of probabilities dictates that for an eight deck game in Baccarat, the banker wins approximately 45.86% of the time, the player wins around 44.62% of the time and 9.52% of rounds finish as a tie. This means that of the rounds that are not tied, the banker wins 50.68% and the player wins 49.32% of the time.

As the odds favour the banker, the casino secures a house edge by charging a 5% commission on winning bets on the banker. The respective house edges for betting on the player and banker and a tie can be calculated as follows:

House edge on player bets

Probability of player winning - Probability of banker winning = House edge

0.446247 - 0.458597 = -0.01235 = 1.24% house edge

House edge on banker bets

(0.95 x Probability of banker winning) - Probability of player winning = House edge

(0.95 x 0.458597) - 0.446247 = -0.01057985 = 1.06% house edge

House edge on tie bets

(8 x Probability of tie) - Probability of player winning - Probability of banker winning = House edge

(8 x 0.095156) - 0.446247 - 0.458597 = -0.0143596 = 14.36% house edge

On rare occasions, casinos may offer less than a 5% commission rate on banker bets. That affects the house edge on banker bets as follows:

Baccarat strategy

As most of time the player’s only action in a round of Baccarat is to place a bet at the start, there is limited strategy that can be applied to the game. However, there are tips informed by the probabilities and house edges involved that are helpful to consider.

In Baccarat, it is important to not fall into the trap of reading into patterns that are not there.

Firstly, the most sensible approach is the bet on the banker in any given round, as it is the most likely outcome and offers the smallest house edge irrespective of the commission applied. Whilst the latter still dictates that you are likely lose €1.06 for every €100 bet on the banker, this is a better predicted return than betting equivalent amounts on the player and a tie.

Indeed, betting on ties is very difficult to justify. Whilst the 8:1 payout may suggest it is a proficient route to boosting your winnings, a 9.52% probability translates to it occurring only once every 10.5 rounds. This offers the aforementioned very large 14.36% edge to the house, underlining that it is firmly a poor value bet.

Reading Baccarat Patterns Pictures

It is also important to not fall into the trap of reading into patterns that are not there. Even if the banker has just won ten rounds in a row, their chances of winning the next is still 45.86%, so treat each round as independent.

How To Read Baccarat

Finally, if a casino uses less than eight decks and charges less than 5% commission on banker bets, playing at their tables will allow you to enjoy a narrowly better banker win probability and more favourable house edges respectively.

Learn more about Baccarat

If you’re interested in alternative ways to play Baccarat, check out our guides to Baccarat variants and Baccarat side bets. If you want to learn more about Baccarat beyond how to play the game, you can read about the history of Baccarat.

Reading Baccarat Patterns Free

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